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China’s economic lure outshines US military bases in Asia

(Global Times)    10:20, November 11, 2016

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak's recent purchase of navy vessels from China, combined with the Filipino pivot toward China, has put holes in Washington's net around the Middle Kingdom.

The goal of the US pivot's redeployment of 50 to 60 percent of the US Navy's fleet by 2020 to contain China and sever what China calls the "Maritime Silk Road," is now at risk.

Malaysia's announcement of a 2 billion ringgit ($476 million) cut to its 2017 defense budget from 2016 benefits China. The cuts have forced the cancellation of a US Marine-backed project to develop an amphibious corps with the Malaysians.

Najib is following Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who has said his country's future is wedded to China and not the US. Cambodia and Laos have less dramatically made the same choice.

The Philippines' reshuffling has geographically fractured the Asian pivot, separating South Korea and Japan from Vietnam, and causing Malaysia, which holds the Strait of Malacca, through which 40 percent of global trade and more than 80 percent of China's oil imports pass, to engage bilaterally with China.

It's simple: US allies are being overwhelmed by China's sheer industrial production, and infrastructure investment is more attractive than US foreign military base construction.

For Duterte, the decision to pivot to China comes from believing the US has failed Filipinos. The Philippines is racked with poverty. China offers investment. The Filipino economy is 18 percent tourism, with 4 million tourists last year. Manila wants to increase this with a slice of last year's 120 million outbound Chinese tourists.

The Philippines craves infrastructure. High-speed rail, industrial development, telecommunications and loans from China could double the Filipino economy. The US no longer has the industrial capacity, or will, to do this as its economy is stretched to such a degree that US infrastructure is in disrepair.

The soft-power infrastructure policy of China has been more successful than US military bases. The five US bases in the Philippines haven't alleviated poverty. After decades of vassal state relations with the US, China's policy of building roads, ports, and airports is being favored. This policy has succeeded in Africa, causing the US to establish Africom to counter China's burgeoning influence.

The Philippines is militarily weak compared to China. Beijing may be unyielding on the South China Sea issue. Given the huge power asymmetries, it could be grossly difficult for the Philippines to deal with China on its own. However, the Philippines' repositioning could create a compromise between them.

Japan and South Korea may become isolated if the ASEAN countries continue to turn towards Beijing, and will have to decide what is more beneficial: US-led containment or collaborating with a China-led Asia.

South Korea's reliance on the US for security and vast trade with China puts it in a precarious position. It's maintaining a careful balance in relations with China, which is a multi-trillion dollar economic power that is closer, with the industrial capacity to inspire the growth of Asian economies. The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the alternative economic system within the rebalancing, which ostracizes the Chinese economy. South Korea doesn't want a trade war with China, as it would be against its own interests.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's recent meeting with Duterte showed his coy revisionist nationalism. The US ambition to assert leadership over a China-containment coalition is collapsing. Abe would choose exploiting the rebalancing to rebuild Japanese regional clout by cultivating direct bilateral ties with Asian states. He would do this over emphasizing US leadership to confront China. Abe could have repudiated Duterte for breaking with the US, but he didn't.

The balance between advocating the pivot and advocating national interest is allowing China to lure in its neighbors. By offering infrastructure and beneficial projects like the Asian Investment Infrastructure Bank, not service-based trade and numerous military bases, China's industry is fracturing the American's Asian "ring of steel."

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Web editor: Ma Danning, Bianji)

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